Prandelli Produced 653 Points Profit in the Soybean Market This Year!
Soybean PFS Forecast Bulletin Review
By Daniele Prandelli
A REVIEW OF THE 2013 PFS FORECAST BULLETIN &
WITH ANALYSIS OF TRADING RESULTSÖ
Note: Daniele is an Italian National, and English is his 2nd Language.
We apologize for the awkward language, but he is currently studying English
and living in London to improve it, so it is getting better all the timeÖ
To demonstrate the full spectrum of tools and information provided by my PFS Forecast Bulletin & Service, I would like to first review the 2013 Bulletin for Soybeans, and then go through the year looking at the updates, which are very important, even more so than the Bulletin itself. As you will see, the Updates apply my analysis techniques in real time, using my Key Price indications and Strategic approach, which adjust the PFS Forecast and trading according to the specific changes in the market as the year progresses.† Following is a summary of the Bulletin as published for the year 2013 back in October of 2012, followed by the Updates sent throughout the year, and I have provided charts and a brief summary demonstrating the results.† I have emphasized and put in RED the most important points which determined our trading strategy, to make them completely clear without having to read every detailÖ
summary of 2013 Soybean PFS Forecast BULLETIN
Following is a summary of the 2013 Bulletin Review for Soybeans, where we analyse the Bulletin from the last year considering the full service, with the Updates that I sent over the year and the Key Prices, this is the best way to understand how my work can be useful, learning how to take position and how to use stops.
Here is the 2013 Soybeans PFS Model published in October 2012:
2013 PFS Forecast Model for Soybeans
This is the Soybean Forecast Model for the year 2013. You will notice that it is not too different from the Corn Model. The trend is generally up for most of the year. During the summer, where we see the more lateral phase, it is possible that we will see strong upward and downward movements, and these phases are always difficult to manage.
For this reason, if we see strong upward movements after May, I would suggest closing Ĺ your position in profit, leaving the rest to run, because statistically we should see a higher close for the year than the open. But after a strong up move comes, then watch for a strong and fast downward move. From June to September you can see that the Model moves laterally with high volatility, so it is confirming the possibility of a strong and volatile up and down movement. For this reason, if big profits are gained during the summer, take part of them and wait.† Donít be greedy.
If we look at the SPOT Chart, we can see that my model worked quite well during this year. My model forecasts an uptrend till the summer with High in July and August, and then a lateral phase with possible Low in September or October. Actually Soybeans moved up till the summer, and then there is a strong fall till now, October-November, where it looks like Soybeans is making a bottom. But you know, how can we trade without a strategy and prices? For this reason we have to pay attention first of all at the updates during the year, and we will see that we had the opportunity to make huge profits.
Here is the first update of the year, on January the 8th:
January the 8th, 2013
The same is for Soybeans (see Corn section). At the moment my indication is LONG, I had a key level at 1367-1368 points in the March contract. Soybeans broke beneath this level, and when I saw it returning above my price, I entered LONG.
You can use this Key Price for the March Future contract. Other prices are at 1351, 1396 and 1441 points. Remember, the prices are very important because with them you will be able to trade with an intelligent stop-loss so you can always keep under your possible losses control.
This CHART of the MARCH 2013 FUTURE CONTRACT shows you that the forecast was very good and we could follow the uptrend with great profits.† Well done!
On February the 17th I sent a new Update:
February the 17th, 2013
With the Soybeans Contract we have been able to follow the uptrend with the opportunity to take good profits. Just to show you how the key prices are important, look at the chart: I gave you in the update on January the 8th, where I said to be ready to enter LONG using the key prices, and as you can see, I gave the price 1351. Well, on January 11th we have seen the final Low. Which level was the Low? It was right at 1351.50 points. So, with patience, waiting for this price we had a great opportunity to buy right at the Low.
Now, in my personal trading that I send every day in my Reports, we ceased to trade LONG under the key price at 1486 points and now we are waiting for a new opportunity to re-enter LONG. Iím using now the key prices at 1396 and 1441 points; I will be always LONG above them, and FLAT under them. How to use the key prices, look the last update where I gave you an example.
With this update I said to be ready to enter LONG again above the key prices 1396 or 1441; you know, Iím trying to follow the uptrend. Look at the chart that I have posted previously, the key price 1441 was a good entry point to follow the uptrend.
On April the 4th I sent the next Update, here is:
April the 4th, 2013
The same story is for Soybeans after the strong fall (see the Corn section, strong fall because of the NASS March Stocks & Seeding Report). We are looking for a possible Low and a good key price to enter LONG.
The price that gives me more confidence to enter LONG is 1376 points. I will use it to enter LONG, with always a close stop under it. As always, we have to look at the intraday charts to enter, waiting for a confirmation of the trend above the key price. Today, 4th April, we have seen a lateral phase above my key price, and then a fall under it. This is confirming that this key price is working.
We try to give a look at other prices. The May Contract shows an evident support around 1345-1347 points; hence, if we see a descent till this area, we can try a LONG position with stop under it.
If the fall continues, we have 1318 and 1253. In my opinion these are the most important supports if we will see a continuation of the down trend.
What we are doing with our analysis is to bet for an uptrend. But this doesnít mean we must buy and hope. It means that we can try to open LONG positions using our key prices, and then follow the trend, always with a close stop-loss under the key price. What we risk is to lose few points against the opportunity to follow the trend and gain many points.
So, as you know, I was trying to follow the uptrend. We have seen a strong fall because of the NASS March Stocks & Seeding Report, and in my Report I said that I was expecting an imminent LOW and my favorite price to enter LONG was 1376, I said exactly: ďThe price that gives me more confidence to enter LONG is 1376 points. I will use it to enter LONG, with always a close stop under it. As always, we have to look at the intraday charts to enter, waiting for a confirmation of the trend above the key price.Ē Now we look at the Chart, May Contract:
You can see that the update sent on April the 4th was very useful. The May contract closed with excellent profits.† Not bad!
Then letís see the next Update that I sent on May the 22nd:
May the 22nd, 2013
There is no news about Soybeans. Read the past update, and then look at the chart. You should see that I said to try the LONG position at 1376 points (May Contract). If you did it, following the uptrend of the PFS, you would be in gain of 150 points, even more considering the roll-over with the July contract. What I can say now is that in my opinion the up push is not over, and it should go on. But take care! Because the up push should finish during the summer.
Play with the key prices at 1408.75, 1460 and 1479-1482. These are my most important key prices for the July Contract.
The forecast was perfect and we could make huge profits following the uptrend since the April Update. Important to note I said that the up push was not over but that could finish during the summer.
Here is the July Contract Chart:
Here we can see the confirmation that the forecast was right and we see higher prices during the summer.
This is just a quick Update that I sent via e-mail to Brad on June the 13th:
June the 13th, 2013
What a shame, I have been so busy that I have not had time to send you the update on Soybeans! I told you that area 1545 was a very important level, and the uptrend could be finished. Well, yesterday we have seen a top at 1557 and now it is at 1510! Iím so sorry. I donít have very much to say, just that the top could be done, and we have to play with the level 1545-1550 because it is very important, SHORT under it and LONG above it. You can send this email to your subscribers, then for the next update I would prefer to wait July, because we will change the contract from July to September, where I will have to study and give the new prices for the new contract.
As you can see from the Chart above, there is a top around mid-June, but then we see in the last 2 days of June that the July Contract moves above the previous High. But, the July Contract was about to expire, we donít trade it anymore in the last day of the month. Well, the summer has been great in my opinion, but it was not easy, and now Iím telling you why, read the next Update, sent on July the 31st:
July the 31st, 2013
Soybeans has given us very big satisfaction, when I said to follow the uptrend till this summer it started to push up strongly and we have had the opportunity to make huge profits.
In June a Geometry of the July Contract made me think that the uptrend was over, in fact, July Contract has not seen any higher level till the Expiration Day, and also the November and the September Contract actually have the High in June, and it was perfect (you should have received the e-mail from Brad about my ďlate updateĒ on June the 13th). Following this forecast with these two contracts, now you should have good profits even following the down trend, after big profits from the uptrend till June (more than 100 points these two Contracts are down from the last e-mail of June the 13th, when I said that the uptrend was over). Now, if you moved from the July to the August Contract, probably you have had more troubles to follow the down trend because this Contract did a new High in July, but in the last 10 days it has crashed, following the general forecast of lower prices. Even for me it is not always easy to understand the best Contract to use because sometime it happens that different expirations move in a different way, even if they are close like August and September.
Anyway, the forecast looks right, the uptrend worked till the summer, and in my opinion we are now in a down trend that should work at least till September. Right now it is significant the ascending trend line that you can see in the September and November Contracts, where it is working as a support, at 1201 for the November Contract and at 1247 of the September Contract. A consolidation under these supports would confirm the forecast that is expecting a general continuation of the down trend.
I have also an important price for the November Contract, the one that Iím using to trade Soybeans, at 1161-1163 points. Then I have 1210 and 1240, my key prices. With my Report from my Daily Service we are SHORT from 1285 points, and now I moved my stop at 1210, I will be always SHORT under it and FLAT above it.
Interesting also to see that the PFS was forecasting the Highest High on July the 22nd or on August the 14th, and at the moment the strong fall has started exactly on July the 22nd, you can appreciate it looking at the August Contract, where the High at that date and the following fall is very evident.
So, when in June I said that the uptrend was over, my forecast was generally right, look at the November Contract Chart (September contract moved in the same way):
But if we look at the August Contract, it was not so easy even if, in the end, we see the expected descent:
As you can see, in August there is a strong uptrend that wasnít forecasted. But read with attention what I wrote about the strategy because in my opinion there is no trading without using the Key Prices, in fact I said:
ďI have also an important price for the November Contract, the one that Iím using to trade Soybeans, at 1161-1163 points. Then I have 1210 and 1240, my key prices. With my Report from my Daily Service we are SHORT from 1285 points, and now I move my stop at 1210, I will be always SHORT under it and FLAT above it.Ē
You see? Even if I didnít forecast the strong uptrend of August, there was no point to remain LONG above 1210 points, and also I said that I had an important price at 1161-1163 points (November Contract, as I said in the Update). Now look at the Chart:
In my Daily Report Service we closed the SHORT position at 1165 points, and we opened a LONG position at 1171 points.
After this Review about the 2013 Soybeans Bulletin you can understand that it was not so hard to produce a profit of 653 points in my Daily Report Service from November 2012 till now (October 2013).
Even with Soybeans, as you can see, it is fundamental to have a constant ongoing update, and even if the main forecast doesnít look great, it doesnít mean that we cannot take advantage of it. It is important that you follow the trend and that you are disciplined about using stops. I think that the updates are very useful, since in them I use the same rules that I use to trade for myself, which produced a profit of 653 points in less than 12 months this year
It was important for me to demonstrate how I work with my Bulletin. Probably no one was expecting such a detailed review of the past year, but in this way, now you know what to expect from my service and how to take advantage of it. Also, I hope that you understand how important it was to use the Key Prices to trade the market when we had to follow the trend, but even more so when we had to close the position with a little loss or with a stop-profit order.
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