Prandelliís Stock Market Forecast for 2014 NAILED the Russell 2000!
2014 Prandelli PFS
Forecast Bulletin Results
A SUMMARY OF THE RESULTS OF PRANDELLIíS 2014 FORECASTS & UPDATES
FOR THE STOCK MARKET Ė S&P500 & RUSSELL 2000...
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A STUDY IN DIVERGENCE
BETWEEN THE S&P500 AND THE RUSSELL 2000
PRANDELLI 2014 PFS FORECAST OVERLAID ON THE RUSSELL 2000
To analyse my PFS Forecast for 2014, we have to speak about many things because the market can be complex. Let me make this statement, something that usually I never do because it looks like an excuse, and I donít like it, but I have to face the truth: the S&P500 and the Dow Jones 30 suffered from huge manipulation all through 2014, and I want to demonstrate this through showing some facts.
These two Markets moved strongly in and uptrend, they have never had any downtrend for more than 10 trading days (before October). This is something unusual considering we are looking at a period of 10 months! Of course, it can happen, the S&P500 is in a strong up trend, whatís wrong with that? I feel there is something wrong because my forecast was different, and looking at these two markets, I must consider that my forecast was bad.
This situation made me think a lot, my forecast can be wrong sometimes but rarely for so long. To my forecast model happened something that happened to Gann in forecasting the year 1951-1952, when he was expecting a downtrend but the Market pushed up strongly. Gann was complaining about the US Government and the New Deal, saying that they could not fight the big depression that was coming around 1951-1952. The fact is that the market went against Gann and remained up for all this whole time, and no one big depression came.
I felt the same feeling all through the 2014. I was expecting a High in January-February, or even in the first days of March, and then down. I was forecasting the Low of the year for October, but the S&P500 was so strong that in September it made new all the time Highs
Now you are probably saying: Isnít it possible that maybe your forecast was just wrong? Well, of course it could be, but I believe so much in my work that if there is something wrong in my cycles, I have to figure out why. And after some study, I discovered that my forecast with natural cycles wasnít actually wrong at all.
The first step to do was to compare the movement of the S&P500 with the Russell 2000 during the prior years up to 2013!† They are IDENTICAL. Here are the two Markets compared during the last 3 years:
2011 S&P500 vs. 2011 Russell 2000 - The two Indexes are identical!
2012 S&P500 vs. 2011 Russell 2000 Ė Again, the two Indexes are almost identical!
2013 S&P500 vs. 2011 Russell 2000 Ė And again, the two Indexes are identical!
I went back 20 years, comparing these two different Indexes, and every year they were almost IDENTICAL.
So now letís compare these two Indexes during 2014
2014 S&P500 vs. 2011 Russell 2000 Ė Like two completely different markets!?!?
WHAT?!? Something strange happened! They donít look identical anymore, AT ALL... How is it possible that over the last 20 years (I went back 20 years, yes) these two markets moved in the almost exactly the same way and that in the last year they didnít? In the past it happened many times that one was stronger or weaker than the other, but the trend was always the same. During 2014 we have a totally different trend between them.†
They appear to be two different Markets!!!
What is the difference between these two Indexes to make them move so differently? The power! The Russell 2000 represents small-cap and mid-cap companies, while the S&P500 represents large capitalization stocks, the biggest companies. It was as if all the people with power supported only the most important companies in the US. Perhaps we are understanding where the money printed by the US is going.
Following was my forecast for the last year, 2014:
And this is what I wrote:
The red line, the one that forecasts the possible main trend, is quite lateral till August, where a down trend starts till October. Actually, Iím expecting an uptrend starting from October and this month could be a good buy opportunity, even the possible Low of the year.
But letís start from the beginning of the year. We should see an important top within the first 3 months. It is even possible to see a top around 9-14 January or in the last week of the month/first week of February. From February we should see a down push even if a possible little up push could happen around February the 15th-17th. This is a study that I have inserted in my first course, The Law of Cause and Effect, and now Iím really curious to see if something that I said 4 years ago is going to work: February 2014, a new down push should start. In March it is possible we are going to see a little new up push, but just an intermediate up push. Iím not excluding that the up push of March will finish in a top of the year.
But what we have to work with is a possible descent that should push the S&P500 toward lower levels. The second half of March should be negative. We should see then a general downtrend toward July, with a possible intermediate Low in April or May, and in June a new descent should start, but attention around June the 19th, I have contrasting signals around this time window because I would like to see a descent but there is a study that indicates an up push. 18-20 April and 10-14 May should be a change in trend. Possible up push around 25th of April. It is important to know that we will follow the Market during the year as we have done during the 2013 with great results, and we have to pay attention at the most important prices, but we will speak later about that. If everything works as expected, from July a possible new intermediate up push should work, but then in August or September there is the possibility of a new down push toward October. August has a possible little up push even around the 2nd of the monthÖ
If we look at only the S&P500, the forecast is totally wrong:
But, now have a look at the Russell 2000 over the 2014 PFS Forecast:
Here my forecast doesnít look so wrong at all!† Actually, my main forecast was a High in February and a Low in October... almost perfect! If anything there was a bit of a lag in the market behind the PFS cycle model, but the general relationships were right on target.
I donít feel my forecast was wrong, but now I feel like Iím trying to find an excuse about why it did not model the S&P500 so well. What I need to find is a solution, not an excuse. First of all, I donít think we are going to see this condition again, it happened from March (when the S&P500 remained sideways while the Russell 2000 was pushing down) till September. Considering we have never seen something like that in the past, I think this situation is going to finish soon. For this reason Iím not worried about the future. But I have another solution:
I follow now and also trade the Russell 2000 Futures, since it adheres so nicely to my PFS model!
Over the year we were able to protect our trades with stops. I had very important levels that worked quite well, but you understand, I was following the wrong trend most of the time. It is unbelievable how every time I said to try the SHORT side, the Russell 2000 actually went down though the S&P did not. One example is during the second update, in February, when I was forecasting a top not over March the 10th, and I said that March the 7th could be the right day because it had a good energy, look at the chart below.
Again, you can see how the S&P500 didnít move down, but just sideways. The forecast about March the 7th has a meaning but you can see it only in the Russell 2000 where it produced a clear top and a nice tradable downtrend.
This is just an example of how I have produced a forecast that seems wrong in the S&P500 and right in the Russell 2000, demonstrating how my long term cycles modelled by the PFS are showing the correct cycles behind the general market.† However, when it comes to the S&P500 and these large Cap stocks, there is just simply something unusual happening that is causing that market to distort from the normal and expected trend of the underlying cycles.
REVIEW OF PFS BULLETIN UPDATES THROUGH 2014:
Following I have reproduced all the updates that I gave through 2014, for those who would like to see what the ongoing analysis service is like through the year.† This gives a very good sense of how the Key Price Level analysis is integrated in with the PFS timing forecast, and how using the two together, we can successfully trade the market and follow the key swings and inidcationsÖ
Prandelli 2014 S&P500 Forecast Bulletin
10 January Update
The S&P500 is having a behavior really boring, a strong lateral phase, without any opportunity to follow any trend. I was expecting an up push in these days, but the S&P500 remains flat. You know that Iím expecting a general downtrend that should start soon, but I admit that I would prefer a last little up push, target between 1852-1885, and in this area I will start to trade SHORT.
Do you remember what I said in the Bulletins? Target at 1885; well, the S&P500 did a High at 1849.44, and considering that I gave my target in August, it looks like Iím a wizard, but Iím not at all! Actually, Iím quite confused now, and Iím telling you why: if I gave the target at 1850, it is different than 1849.44. So, following my studies I admit that Iím still waiting to reach my target, now at least at 1852 points, for this reason Iím still betting for a new little up push, and at the moment I havenít opened any short position yet. But what if Iím wrong? What if my target has been reached and the S&P500 is ready to push down? Well, first of all we donít have to be in a hurry. At the moment this is my plan: Iím using my intraday key prices to follow a possible up push, because this is at the moment my favorite path, then I will close my LONG position at 1852 and I will start trading SHORT, with a general stop above 1885 points. If the S&P500 starts moving down, there is an intermediate level at 1810 Index Points, and in case of consolidation under it, I will start trading SHORT, but with stop above it. The most important level is at 1852, this is my key, and I want to see the S&P500 here! But I could be wrong, so I have the plan B, under 1810.
There are no updates about the forecast, I was waiting a general top around January or February, here we are, now we have to work with the prices to build the strategy. Looking at the short term, the lateral phase is not helping me to make a clear forecast for the next days, so Iím just waiting. If I have to look at my forecasting models, I confirm a possible imminent new little up push, and I hope so, because the model is suggesting new Highs, and it would be perfect because it means to reach my perfect target, and then the strategy would be clear.
This is what happened in the Market:
My forecast of a new uptrend from August 2013 was right, giving also the target in the area of 1850, reached in January. Then I said I was expecting an imminent down push starting from January or February, the S&P500 started pushing down, but my perfect target was 1852, which was not reached, in fact the S&P500 pushed up again in February, reaching my ideal target.
Prandelli 2014 S&P500 Forecast Bulletin
30 January Update
The S&P500 started pushing down, from the last update where I said that I was waiting a last little up push toward my target, this Market actually did a new little up push with a High at 1850.84, and my top call was only one point off, not so bad. If you have been able to open a SHORT position from area 1850 you are having probably a great profit. If you did it under 1810, still you have a good profit. Now we have to look at the chart to understand the situation:
In my opinion we are in a time window where a possible up push could start, so it would be better to take some profits or even close the SHORT position. You can see that the geometry that is building the uptrend of the last months is not over, and we can say we have seen a Low on the support of the uptrend. Also, I have an intermediate key level at 1774, and it looks to be the cause of the Low of the last days.
So, what Iím doing with my personal trading is to open LONG positions, with a stop in case of consolidation under area 1771-1774. A consolidation under it can mean a continuation of the downtrend, but the forecast at the moment is expecting an imminent up push. Next Key level, as you know, is at 1810, in case we recover this level, and the S&P500 moves above it, we can expect Higher levels. In case the S&P500 follows this path, we can expect a High in February or March, but not over March (this is at the moment the forecast). What we have to do now is to play with the main support of the uptrend, now in area 1771-1774, where I have also a mid-term key level. Remember that the Market can do whatever it wants, if you are trying to open LONG positions now, be ready to close it in case of consolidation under 1771!
Letís pay attention at this Update: the Market pushed down, I said to be SHORT in the last update, and I said we could use the level 1810 for a confirmation. Here I say that in my opinion we are in a time window where a possible up push can start, and I said that it was better to close any SHORT position. I was opening a LONG position with a stop under area 1771-1774. From the Chart we can see that the S&P500 moved under 1771, where we had to close the position, but then it moved immediately up.
Prandelli 2014 S&P500 Forecast Bulletin
24 February Update
If you followed my work, you know that my perfect target was not reached in January, and I was a bit confused because the descent was strong but still I wanted to see the S&P500 above 1852 Actually the S&P500 moved up as strong as it moved down, and today my most important target has been finally reached.
It means that following my studies and my probabilistic forecast, this is the time to be ready for a possible descent! The important level is now at 1854-1855, it means we can plan a strategy to open a SHORT position with a stop above 1887 points. In my opinion area 1855-1887 will be the top area, for this reason I will be always SHORT under 1854.
As you know we have to be always careful because everything can happen. If we see an up movement above 1887 after March the 10th, everything changes, but this is not my best scenario. The forecast is suggesting a top between today (possible important change in trend today or tomorrow) and March the 10th. March the 7th has a good energy to be a possible important day too, possible change in trend.
Summing up, the S&P500 has reached the important target, Iím ready to open SHORT positions considering that also the forecast is suggesting a descent.
Here we start to play hard but we start having also troubles with the S&P500. The first positive thing is that the S&P500 finally reached my perfect Target.
Then I say that we have to be ready for the descent, the top should be done between 1855 and 1887. Then I say that in case of a movement above 1887 after March the 10th, the scenario changes. To be more precise, I said that, ďThe forecast is suggesting a top between today (possible important change in trend today or tomorrow and March the 10th. March the 7th has a good energy to be a possible important day too, possible change in trend.Ē
We have to pay attention to the S&P500, above all before March the 10th.
Everything was just perfect, the top area and the timing, but something went wrong after the 10th; we see a little down movement but then the Market remains sideways.
I have already showed you before what happened during these days in the Russell 2000, a proper descent as forecasted, with a great timing:
Prandelli 2014 S&P500 Forecast Bulletin
23 April Update
My last update was wrong, and after many good calls it is not easy to accept it, but it was evident. My favorite top area has been broken, we have seen a High at 1897.28 Index Points. But what is important to look at is how the S&P500 moved in the last 2 months: NO ONE DIRECTION! The S&P500 remains around the same levels, there was no one opportunity to follow a proper trend, look at the chart! Even my personal strategy has been very hard, with little profits and losses, actually the profits have been really low.
So, how to handle this situation? Of course the best thing to do is to wait till this lateral phase is over, maybe under 1810 Index Points, but we can also use it to make some interesting trades: considering that the S&P500 is moving mainly in a trading range, we can always SHORT when it is around 1884-1900 and close the position when it is around 1850. But why selling at 1885-1900? I have a very strong long-term level, VERY STRONG, in area 1897-1900 plus a precise mid-term level at 1884-1885. The level at 1897-1900 changes over the time, it moves up, so it will be around 1899-1910 in May. This is in my opinion the cause of the stop of the uptrend of the last 2 months, and with my forecast I think we wonít see a movement above this area (I mean not a consolidation, that area will be the top area). It is important anyway to not be SHORT in case we see a consolidation above this important long-term area.
So, what Iím forecasting is a downtrend from this area, hoping to see soon the end of this horrible lateral phase.
In a short term view Iím expecting an imminent descent till the 28th. Around the 28th a new little up push should work till May where a final intermediate top should be the end of this phase and then we should see the downtrend.
It is quite hard to be precise in a trading range like the one that we are living. For example at the moment Iím not able to say when the down push can work from May, for this reason Iím focused on the price, the main guide is the level area at 1897.50-1900, I will try to follow the downtrend as long as the S&P500 remains under this level (remember that this level is at 1899-1910 Index Points in May). The PFS anyway is working quite well because it was forecasting higher levels, but in my opinion we are living an exceptional situation because the lateral phase has been really unusual. Iím still thinking we will see a general descent soon, and October will be a buy opportunity. The short-term PFS suggests possible top around May the 13th.
I will send you updates when the situation will be clearer, for now I go on waiting for the downtrend, doing some little SHORT trades as long as the lateral phase is not over. Iím sorry to not be more useful than this, but this is the Market, at the moment a very bad Market without any opportunity to follow a proper trend, we can just do one thing: wait.
And this is what happened in the Market:
And, look at the Russell 2000 Index, because in my opinion I did a great forecast; I said that I was waiting for a new descent till the 28th of April (the Update was sent on the 23rd of April) then a little up movement and then down again...
Prandelli 2014 S&P500 Forecast Bulletin
17 June Update
The expected descent from February never arrived, and at the first important up push of the PFS we have seen a break above the sideways movement of the last 3 months. It has been a very hard phase, very stressful, always taking little profits, being stopped many times. I had also an important forecast about February, where I was expecting to see a descent, but nothing. We do have seen descents from February in other Markets, but the S&P500 remained up, always up.
Here is the DAX30:
You can see the descent from February that didnít happen in the S&P500. Plus, look how the Index jumped above the important level at 9750, it means this is not the right moment to open SHORT positions, not now.
Letís be back to the S&P500. Now, after the break above 1900, everyone is questioning: is the Stock Market ready to move into another uptrend or is it just a trap? I donít know, no one knows! (speaking about reality, of course). But there is something that I know: the long-term prices I use to understand the trend are working very well, and now I show how:
It is absolutely evident that these long-term prices have been crossed now, so we must be careful if we want to open SHORT positions. In my opinion, as long as the S&P500 remains above these levels, we should not try to open SHORT positions. Also, as every book and trader teaches, we should not anticipate the Market, that would be dangerous, but we have to wait for a confirmation. Look at the Chart: do you see any confirmation of the end of the uptrend? Absolutely not! The uptrend remains strong, supported by the ascending trend lines. The Tops around 1900 could be the end of the uptrend, but then the Index moved above 1900, and as I said, that was a very important level where we had to give up with the SHORT positions in case of movement above it. I said also that May the 13th could be a High, actually we see a High in that date, but then, in the last days of May, the Market broke this High with a new up push. We are having so many signals that are telling us this is not the time to SHORT the S&P500, not yet.
About the possible forecast, the PFS, that is working very well this year, my fault I didnít follow it precisely, is suggesting a top in June or July and then down toward October where a new buy opportunity should come. This is also my favourite path at the moment, we have only to pay attention at the prices to do the next move. Looking at the forecast I donít have any important buy opportunity between July and October, otherwise I would say to buy right now. Considering the PFS is moving generally down now till October, I wonít give any buy signal (considering the mid-term trading approach) till October. But it doesnít mean Iím going to open SHORT positions straight away, Iím waiting for proper signals under important levels before to do it, this must be clear!
About next important changes in trend, there is the 18th of June, but it is not clear what it can be, if a High or a Low, but in my opinion we will see a descent from the 18th, then attention from Friday or Monday the 23rd, possible little up push. Then there is a possible change in trend around the 15th of July, possible High or around the 24th, possible High as well. As I said the price will be very important: if we see a top in June or July with the Market a bit far from 1915-1920, letís say above 1940, we can try a SHORT position, with stop above 1954 for example, but if the S&P500 is around 1920, in my opinion it is wise to wait for a movement under the important long-term area, now at 1902-1915, before to try a SHORT position. It is very important we pay attention at this level, this is the Key for the next trend, and considering we are now above it, better to not open SHORT positions without a confirmation. If the High in June or July works, we will have time to open SHORT positions under 1902 or 1915, without hurry. It is not a problem to miss 20 or 30 points if then we want to follow a trend of 100 or 150 points.
Next important prices are at 1954 and 2040, actually 2040 would be my next target after 1954.
Remember that the important level at 1902-1915 moves over the time. In July this level will be at 1903-1905 and 1919-1930. These are 2 different levels, both very important. It is possible to try a SHORT position if we see a consolidation under the first one at 1919-1930. At the moment, in June, this level is at 1915-1919 Index Points. If we try to open SHORT positions under these important levels, remember to keep a stop-loss always above them, always! The expectation of the profit must be higher of the possible loss, always, otherwise there is no point to hope in a profit!
In the first part I show what I have already explained, with also the DAX300 that moved down when I was expecting the downtrend. From February.† Then I show the importance of the long-term levels.
Then I explain that my forecast is suggesting a top around June-July and then down toward October, possible Low and Buy Opportunity. Again, the S&P500 shows an anomalous strength, but the Russell 2000 Index proves that my forecast was right, again.
Plus, I say that for opening SHORT positions in the S&P500, the wisest thing to do is to wait for a movement under the most important levels at 1903-1930. The S&P500 will do a Low at 1904, no one confirmation under our long-term Key Level.
Prandelli 2014 S&P500 Forecast Bulletin
25 August Update
The S&P500 is showing such a strong power, I was not expecting something like this, but if you followed with attention the most important Key Levels, you could see that they supported the uptrend, without giving us any confirmation on opening SHORT positions. If we did, we could close the position immediately without remaining against the trend, taking just a little loss. First, the trend-lines are still supporting the uptrend, second, we have our important levels in area 1905 and 1930 that worked as a support during the descent of August.
In the past Update I said that the 15th or the 24th of July could be a High, and the 24th was exactly the High before the descent, but then the S&P500 did a Low at 1905, exactly bouncing on the long-term level I have in that area.
You see how working with prices is very important. Now the S&P500 is doing new Highs, exactly today with the Futures at 1995.† Now I want to share with you some studies to make you understand why NOW I want to try to SHORT the S&P500:
*(I cannot show this part in respect of people who paid to have it)
I think you understand what I want to show you. The tendency of the actual scenario is an imminent High around the 25th and then down with a Low in October. We can have some deviations from the main path but generally this looks to be the tendency we have to follow to trade in the next few months. Also, this is confirming the other studies that are suggesting an imminent High and a Low in October. This is the forecast Iím going to follow for the next months.
About the most important supports, we have the level at 1906 and at 1938-1945. A movement under 1905 can be the right signal for a stronger descent.
After explaining what happened since the last Update, I show a new study that I cannot show here in respect of people who spent money to buy it. That work was showing a probabilistic path for the S&P500, with a possible High around the 25th of August or few days later, and then down toward October.
The forecast was right, even if the S&P500, again, did something really strange around mid-September, with a fast movement that made it do the last High on the 19th of September before the descent toward October. Again, in my opinion it suffered a kind of manipulation, something that didnít happen looking at the Russell 2000 Index:
We have seen how we worked over the year till now, October 2014, with the 2014 Bulletin. We have had unusual troubles with the S&P500, probably because of a strong manipulation, in spite of that, we had always the situation under control thanks to the important long-term Key Prices. After all, I think that the natural law of cycle worked quite well, and we have seen it in the Russell 2000. Considering that in the last 20 years we have never seen such a difference between the S&P500 and Russell 2000 as it happened from March 2014 to October 2014, I think that my cycles will work properly again as the Russell 2000 proves.
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