a review of Prandelliís stock Market Forecasts for 2016 & 2017
Prandelli PFS Forecast Bulletin
& 2017 Results for the s&p500
2017 S&P 500
Here is the 2017 PFS Forecast Model for the S&P500 with the actual S&P laid over it:
And following is a summary of the Updates that were give to clients during the year, while trading it:
2016 S&P 500
Here is the 2016 PFS Forecast Model for the S&P500:
And here is the 2016 PFS Forecast Model overlaid on top of the real S&P500 through November 2016:
And here is my analysis of what I was expecting throughout the year:
∑ January should be a Low or a month where to buy.
∑ Up till April (possible around the 6th) and then down. Also March can be a High, but April should be around the same top in that case.
∑ Low in May/June, 5th-8th of June is a possible buy time window.
∑ The time window July/August/September at the moment is not clear, because there is the possibility to see an uptrend till the end of the year, or a sideways/weak phase till October/November where a new uptrend starts till the end of the year. (the period July-September will be studied during the year looking at the price structure).
∑ October-November is an accumulation period where we should see a Low. The PFS suggests October as a Low, there is a buy opportunity around the 28th of October.
∑ The blue PFS line shows a strong up push in April, I would not take it in consideration in that period.
∑ I have also some dates (+/- 1 day) where we should see the beginning of up pushes, above all if they turn out to be intermediate Lows:
15/1 Ė 28/1 - 24/3 Ė 9/5 Ė 23/6 Ė 7/7 Ė 13/9 - 21/9 Ė 27-28/10 Ė 13-16/11 Ė 29/12
Letís now speak about the prices: the descent of August 2015 reached a very important level at 1875 Index Points. In the Update I sent at the end of August I said that it was a strong buying opportunity, and we have seen the S&P500 retest the same level at the end of September 2015, and now the Index is at 2060 Points, not bad.
This level remains very important during 2016 in case of an unexpected descent, letís say at 1880-1850 Index Points. Then we have an important level around 2060 Index Points (it changes over the year) and another one at 2072, but it changes quickly, and in January it will be at 2090 Index Points. These two levels are very important to understand right now whether the S&P500 is in a strong or weak position.
Iím expecting higher levels which means we should see a movement and a consolidation above these two levels, which if it happens, we can follow the uptrend with more confidence. You know Iím expecting to see immediately an uptrend from January, and it is interesting to see where the market will be in that period looking at the price. We need to follow the updates through the year to speak about the Key Levels, right now I can give you only the most important ones. In area 2120 Index Points there is also a very strong geometry level, and a consolidation above it is another confirmation for higher levels. Also 2165 Index Points is important, but this level changes over the time.
The Chart shows you how the main forecast is correct so far: the PFS is mainly expecting an uptrend till July, then down till the end of October and up again till the end of the year:
We can say that the forecast worked quite well over the year, nailing all the most important swings defining the general uptrend till the summer, the end of the uptrend, and now we are in November, where the forecast suggests another buying opportunity.
In the Bulletin, I gave also some Key dates where we could see short-term up pushes, as shown here:
In green we have the correct forecast; only the Low in January was 2 days off, but we were under hard conditions. We have only 2 wrong calls, the one in June, which turned out to be a High, and the one on the 28th of October, where the market moved under 2120 Index Points a few days after. In all the other situations, in green, we see always an up push, at least a quite strong up push within two days (remember this is a short-term study, but the suggested up-push can be the beginning of a daily uptrend). We see 7 correct calls and 2 wrong, respecting the statistics of our method. There are still 2 signals left, which are due on the 13-16 of November and on the 29th of December (a bit tricky the last one, considering it is during the Christmas and New Yearís holidays).
So far this year, I have sent out six Updates, the most important was probably the one of the 11th of February, exactly the day of the Low in Stocks and Crude Oil, where I said that I was still expecting the beginning of the uptrend, not just in the S&P500, but also in the Crude Oil Market and DAX30, and I was expecting the pullback in the T-Bonds Market.
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