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Prandelli Documented Forecasts
February – November 2011
The following forecasts and trades presented here are documented on Daniele Prandelli’s
private subscription trading Blog for his paid members. These are only a selection of the
complete trades made during this time, but give a good example of the general PFS Forecasts.
Signals were given before
the market opened, and updated during
the daily session as required.
These examples provide a demonstration of the information and accuracy of the PFS Forecasts.
The techniques presented in The Polarity Factor System will allow you to produce the same
reasults as are seen here. Several different techniques presented in the course will be shown.
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A picture is worth 1000 words!
On February 22 the following forecast was posted on my private Blog:
The chart shows the indications given by the PFS Forecast, giving the dates where the up and down push
should start, along
with the most important insight, a clear directional indication of which way it
The following chart shows the exact S&P500 movement for that period:
PFS does NOT give just random directional turning points, but provides precise
top or bottom
indications, showing which direction the trend will follow, and for how long.
After February 22, the next forecast I posted was on
March 16, indicating my expectations for the next low and change in trend:
The chart showed that we were at a possible Low area, with secondary low on the 23rd,
and projected a minimum Target for the up-trend of 1360 points, where the High was
projected in the first days of May according to the PFS Forecast.
This chart shows the S&P500 over the following weeks:
Here you see that the initial indicated bottom was the exact bottom, and the secondary bottom on the 23rd
did occur as the first pullback of the uptrend.
The price level projection was 10 points off the exact high
forecasted 120 points below the move. The PFS projected top in the beginning of May also correct.
This was a massive 120 point move on the
S&P500, so you can imagine how much profit the
Blog has been able to produce (See: trading records) with the careful and
meticulous trading strategy presented in this new course.
On April 14, I posted a new forecast, where I’ve highlight a missed up-push on April 11, 2011.
It is not unusual for the PFS to miss 1 out of 6 of the projected turns, giving us a 5 out of 6 accuracy rate,
83%, which I round down to an approximately 80% accuracy rate. However, these situations do not present
much of a problem, because the course explains how manage these situations so that they produce very little or
no loss, thanks to the price confirmation. A realistic trading strategy shows all possible situations, since I’m aware
that it is impossible to be infallible. For this reason the Price Lines play a fundamental role in my strategy.
The green line shows my continued PFS timing forecast for April into early May:
The following chart shows what happened to the S&P500 in April:
It is evident that the general trend was forecasted extremely well.
The projected Low on April 14-15 is made on April 18, just a bit off.
Then market pushes up, rising until April 21, where it pauses over the weekend
until April 25, where a new up-push was shown by the PFS until the top in early May.
The following chart was posted on my Private Blog on 2 May giving my forecast into mid-May:
And this is the S&P500 for the next weeks:
The turn on the 2nd was accurate, beginning the downtrend. The 3rd extended to the 5th
and continued to the 10th instead of the 9th, and the then the trend continued downward
bottoming on the 17th just as projected by the PFS, before beginning a new uptrend.
This image clearly shows the power of the PFS timing indications!
In June, I was expecting the first half of the month to be weak, with a final rally at the end,
According to the PFS Forecast, combined with the others studies, and I posted this forecast chart:
On my Post of June 13th, I said: “It will be interesting to pay attention to the prices to
discover the best point to buy for next up-trend. At the moment the PFS forecast
says that there could be a good buying point between June 20-27.”
And on June 17 I wrote: “We are now in the second half of June, where my forecast indicates a Low.
prices that we have seen confirm this scenario, because the area of 1270 is a
very important price level.
My forecast is now looking for a Low exactly between today and Monday June 20 (but the low might have been
made yesterday) then I'm waiting a Low around the 27th of June. I don't know which will be the lower Low,
but all are confirming the importance of this phase of the market as a good buying point.”
This is the S&P500 over the first 20 days of June 2011:
It is evident how the forecast was absolutely precise in these circumstances!
And this chart shows all of June, to also see that the last rally was forecasted correctly:
Not only was the descent forecasted, but also the rally that began after June 27 when the
Low phase was completed. In July, the market advanced as predicted, making a High on July 7th.
Thanks to a study that I present in the course, on the Blog I advised my clients to wait until July 17th,
and told them that if it was a Low, it would be a excellent confirmation to BUY.
This is what I wrote on the following dates in July (I remind you that July 17 was Sunday):
-5 July: “…paying attention to July 17, possible change in trend.”
-12 July: “About the forecast, I would prefer to wait until July 15-18 to take an aggressive Long trade.”
-14 July: “A descent until tomorrow or Monday could be a good opportunity to buy”
-18 July: “The market arrived to my July 17th date with a lateral/Low movement.
would be a statistical confirming for the next rally.”
“I'm LONG with a stop under today's Low.”
During August, I was in India. I had been waiting for a descent after July 26-30.
The market began to descend early, showing weakness, which gave me some doubt.
The PFS indicated a Low on 8-10 August. I did not trade while I was away, so I
will pick back up the analysis in September when I had returned.
In September the green lines show the trades presented on the Blog,
where the PFS forecast indicated a negative second half of the month:
In October, on exactly October 4, the Blog bought on the precise day that we now know was the Low of the
year. I highlighted in my Blog how important this Low was, noting that it was possibly the Low of the year.
The Post for this day indicated a key price at 1074.5 points and a BUY SIGNAL above 1097 points.
The Low was 1074.77, only .22 points off my key price and I bought above 1097 points.
This move produced a powerful trend that ran 200 points with no significant reversals.
Here is the chart:
In November I was waiting for a decline until the week of November 21-25.
The PFS forecasted an important Low between November 24-25, and then an up-push.
On November 1st, I wrote: “for the long term, last half of November remains the best moment to buy.
But with a market that is so volatile I’m not able to say now where that will be with reliability”
Needless to say, that the strong rally began on November 28 after the low on Friday,
November 25 did not escape us, we caught it near the low, and the profits have been large and fast,
with the market running over 100 points in just 6 days. Another big and powerful trade!
In this new course, The Polarity Factor System, my intent is to teach and clearly communicate all
my studies and tools that I use to make the above forecast and trades, organized in a clear and logical
way which will allow you to produce the same results that I have both in forecasting and trading.
These trades were documented
on Prandelli’s private subscirbers Blog over this period,
and can be viewed there for confirmation. Signals were given before the
market opened, and updated during the daily session as required.
Total S&P500 points gained over 3 months = 269.
Reward/Risk Ratio = 6/1
It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented in these products will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. There is no assurance that the strategies and methods presented in this book will be successful for you. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. The examples presented in this book are for educational purposes only. The data used is believed to be from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. The methods presented are not solicitations of any order to buy or sell. The author, publisher, and all affiliates assume no responsibility for your trading or investment results, and will not be liable for any loss, damage or liability directly or indirectly caused by the usage of this material.. There is considerable risk of loss in Futures, Stock and Options trading. You should only use risk capital in all such endeavors. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
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