Ferrera Outlook Forecast Results
From 2011 Through 2016
Documented in his Outlooks for 2012 thru 2016
FERRERA’S OUTLOOK FOR 2017 IS NOW AVAILABLE! CLICK HERE
Ferrera Outlook Forecast Results for 2016
Examples of Ferrera’s 2016 Major Turning Point Forecasts & Angle Projections
as explained in his course: The Path of Least Resistance
Ferrera Outlook Forecast Results 2015 thru 2016
Gann’s 8/8/1908 Time Factor as Presented in His Course
Economic & Stock Market Forecasting
Ferrera Outlook Forecast Results For 2015 – September
Odd & Even Square Projection from May 20th 2015 Top
as presented in his course: The Path of Least Resistance
Ferrera Outlook Forecast Results Q4 2014 thru 2015
Summary of 2015 Outlook
The 2015 Outlook states that the market has changed and cycles are weighing heavy on what is typically a
very bullish year in Gann’s Decennial rules. Readers are warned that stock prices are high and a correction
is likely to occur in August as the maximum extension of this Bull market. Page 30 said,
“August 2015 would be the ultimate time limit of the 3rd longest bull market in history.”
The March Update calculated the maximum price high
for the S&P500 would not exceed 2140.
The highest price traded on May 20th was 2135!
This same update told readers to expect a 6-year cycle low to occur between June and September of 2015.
The market double bottomed in this time period August 25 and September 29,
fulfilling the 6-year low and the initial decline of a projected bear market into 2016,
which implies that it is the final price high of the 6-year bull market advance.
key points from the above chart
· In his August 2014 update, Ferrera said that from a structural perspective that the market changed on September 19th, 2014.
called for a seasonal rally to occur in October to December 30, 2014 as the
next “Square Out” date.
The market does indeed square out on 12/30/2014.
· Ferrera states that the 2015 market should end below the middle red line of the 12/30/14 square out price, which it does!
· He states that the January Effect forecasts a downward year.
shows that the February top (red arrow) shows George Lindsey’s standard time
count for sideways correction.
Topping formation in process.
the June update he told subscribers to use the April 27th high as a
price Pivot. Ferrera said to be Long Above that point, and Short Below it.
The market never broke out above that point.
March Update showed how the daily price structure was setting up for another
Flash Crash and similar decline as Sep thru Oct 2014.
The initial correction began as forecasted and the price pivot level provided several excellent entry points.
June Update stated, “Analysis suggests that mid-August through October of this
year is the most likely
2-month period to usher in the initial phase of a meaningful correction that could ultimately last into 2016.”
Update showed that the market is now bearish on Gann’s primary 45-degree angle
predicted a bounce back that would stall the advance precisely on the same angle, which is exactly what happened.
low (blue arrow at Sep bottom). Readers
were told that a seasonal rally is expected to happen but will be short lived
and fail by
November instead of its typical rise through year end. Market topped November 3rd hitting the 45-degree angle.
· (red arrow Nov top) Market hits its head on the 45-degree angle as forecast to be the ideal price level. Rally died Nov 3rd.
· October update gave Dec 2nd as the price-time date.
closed negative for the year as forecasted. Buy and hold investors have not
ANY real gains since the September 19th 2014 date that Ferrera said market structure began to change.
Early 2014 Indications Given in Ferrera Outlook
2014 OUTLOOK, JAN, FEB & MARCH UPDATES:
· Ferrera called the December 31st, 2013 top on The Dow Jones Industrial Average.
· He gave January 14th as another area for a top, and the S&P and NASDAQ hit their first top on January 16th.
· The next update showed how the decline broke the lowest low of December 2013, confirming the probability of a bear market for 2014.
· Readers were also told to watch for tops around March 6th for the S&P and NASDAQ as these markets were diverging like they did 14-years ago in 2000.
2013 INDICATIONS GIVEN IN FERRERA’S OUTLOOKS!
FERRERA FORECAST A SEP 21, 2012 TOP
FOLLOWED BY A MID-NOV 10, 2012 YEAR CYCLE LOW
FOLLOWED BY AN EXPLOSIVE UPTREND INTO SPRING 2013
HE GAVE HIS FIRST SELL SIGNAL FOR A MAY 21 TOP WITH 10% DECLINE
SAID PATTERN SHOWED A JULY 18 HIGH FOLLOWED BY A SEPT 1 LOW
PREDECTED A 3-5% DECLINE FROM SEPT HIGHS
FOLLOWED BY A SEASONAL RALLY INTO YEAR’S END
(see below from quotes from the outlooks & updates)
HIGHLIGHTS FROM FERRERA’S 2013 OUTLOOK:
October 19 Update: Historical pattern analysis suggests that October might correct approximately 3% to 5% from the current high levels, followed by a seasonal rally into year-end or December 31st, shown below. If the market does experience the minor correction predicted, then purchasing Call Options with December 2013 expiration is likely the best approach to play this particular scenario as it provides a specific amount of risk and a leveraged amount of return.
July 12, 2013 Update: On the prior chart, the cyclic top was April 22nd 1998, with a triple top forming on May 21st, very similar to the cycle top for 2013 on May 21st. This market declined for a full month into late June and then bounced up aggressively into July 18th, 1998, From July 18th, 1998, the markets collapsed over 20% into August 31st before reversing on September 1st
May 15, 2013 Update: The next cycle turn is the anniversary of the NYSE date of incorporation May 17th. On the 20th to 22nd of May, another important cycle turning point is due, ideally May 21st. June is projected as weakness on the 160-year and 180-year cycles. This same period is also weak based upon Gann’s Financial Time Table. As said prior, a top feels near.
Pg. 6: "Examining the forecasting methods presented thus far, it seems likely that the markets will weaken or trend downwards September through late November 2012. In fact, 60 years of almanac analysis pegs the average September decline at -0.5% for the S&P 500 and -0.8% for the Dow Industrials. The worst September came in 1974 when the S&P 500 fell 11.9%, while the best monthly gain was posted just two years ago when the index rose 8.8%. In September, fund managers typically clean house selling a lot of their positions as the end of their third quarter approaches, which has caused some nasty sell-offs near month-end over the years. We may also see some supportive action from the Federal Reserve in the first part of September, but as we approach the Autumnal Equinox (Sept 22nd) the focus will clearly be politics and gauging which way the presidential election is leaning."
Pg. 50: The best time to buy into this market would be under the following conditions: (1) There is a significant price decline from the Autumn Equinox (Sept 22nd 2012 area) down until at least the presidential elections on November 4th. (2) We see this downtrend reverse near the permanent yearly cycle dates of: Nov. 8th to 11th. (3) Readers should project geometric angles down from the September top as shown on page 45 to assist with trade entry. These angles should also be utilized in an upward projection from the lowest price point preceding your entry to provide an exit signal and/or protective stop loss orders. Based upon the 45-year cycle and the 2012 Mass Pressure Chart, we should see an explosive up move following Thanksgiving November 22nd 2012, which would provide confirming evidence that the 45-year cycle is still working itself out. (4) The Market continues up through December 31st, 2012.
RESULTS LOOKING BACK FROM FEB 2013
PRIOR BULL MARKET FORECAST FOR SEP 2011 THROUGH MARCH 2012
Now examining the year 2012 thus far, we see that it has in fact provided a bull market that has basically followed the prediction made on pages 5 and 6 of the 2012 Outlook. Here, aggressive traders were advised to buy an anticipated Sept 24th 2011 low and exit at the end of Feb 2012 or early March 2012. Since this time, the market has been basically range bound indicating that some cycles are reaching a peak. Quite often, the cyclic peak will be the trough falling between a double top formation like a field goal in football. This tendency was the basis of George Lindsey’s mirror image or fold back forecasting technique.
INTENT OF FERRERA’S OUTLOOKS
Readers should always understand that the main objective of these Outlook Reports is to avoid bear markets and significant corrections, yet participate in bull markets advances that are expected to last at least a minimum of 6-months for the most aggressive traders. It should also be viewed as an educational resource as many forecasting discoveries are revealed in each report that are not available from any other source.
Best wishes for successful trading… Dan Ferrera
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