The Most Important Place to Start for All Traders!
The Keys to Successful Speculation
AN APPLIED TECHNICAL TRADING MANUAL
INTEGRATING THE ESSENTIALS OF RISK MANAGEMENT
WITH A GANN BASED SWING TRADING SYSTEM
The Most Important Key to Successful Trading – RISK MANAGEMENT!
The secret to trading is not in the particular method. It’s found by manipulating the risk:reward ratio and applying that to whatever method you use. For example, if you assign a risk reward of 4:1 to your method and your bet size or risk amount is $1000 on any trade and you mechanically exit at 4x this or $4000 then on a $20K account you have 20 chances at hitting the target objective. Assuming your method is only 30% accurate, you would be right 3 times out of ten or 6 times out of 20. The 14 losses would draw you down to $6,000, but the 6 winners would boost the account to +$24,0000 giving an approximate balance of $30K. Biasing the Risk: Reward is the secret to success. That is what Keys to Successful Speculation is all about. People tend to overly focus on the method of analysis or position taking, but it really doesn't matter. It’s how you manage the method that makes the money.
How is it that professional gamblers can earn a lucrative living from games of chance with lower odds of success than the financial markets? To answer this question, one has to study the account strategies used by this unique group of professionals. The secret to trading is not actually found within the particular method or approach to the market. Methods may provide some statistical advantage, but are primarily used to identify opportunities. It will not provide adequate advice as to how to properly expose your account assets for the possible opportunity recognized by the trading methodology.
Understanding and manipulating the risk to reward ratio and applying that understanding to whatever particular approach you utilize in your trading is the real secret to success. Proper management of the account balance, tolerable loss and fully understanding the speculative bias of Risk and Reward is the ultimate secret to long term trading success. That is what Keys to Successful Speculation is really all about, and it’s the same approach professional gamblers use to earn their profits from games of chance at casinos with far lower odds of success.
When you fully grasp the concepts within Keys, you will understand that the method doesn't matter, which is what the majority of traders focus upon. What truly matters is how you manage your method because this is what really stacks the odds in your favor and makes the money for your account. For those who are new to trading, Keys to Successful Speculation provides you with a complete yet practical trading approach to get you started as soon as you feel ready. However, this approach to the market is not the only method that can be used with Keys. Absolutely any system can be traded with Keys once the main message of Risk to Reward ratio and proper account management are fully understood.
The course even provides a home trading exercise where the buy and sell decisions are literally based upon flipping a coin every 27-days and applying the trading and account management rules in Keys to grow the account. To my knowledge, every student who has completed this experiment has found it to be profitable even though the approach is completely random. This a direct result of Keys being based upon the same or similar methods professional gamblers use to consistently beat games of chance. So if you can make profits with a randomly generated trading signal, imagine what you can then do when you use better techniques that produce a better than 50% odds. Once you know how to trade through Keys, you can then focus upon timing and other analysis techniques that better skew the odds in your favor, to 60% or 70%, perhaps better. But even before you have ANY advanced trading techniques, and even with random trade indications, this methodology will have you making profits and limiting your losses. No trader using this approach will ever bankrupt their account again, but making bad decisions. The discipline taught here is THE KEY to successful trading!
Introduction & Overview
The most commonly repeated question we are asked over and over again by market students is, “What one book can I read that will teach me all the basics I need to begin trading?” This is a difficult question, because most books only give bits and pieces of the knowledge needed to begin from scratch and to learn all the necessary details of setting up an account, money management, risk management, entry strategies, stop placement, exit strategies, etc. The best response we can give is to outline a study course of the best works that are available, which every researcher must then integrate into a trading strategy for himself. Some are able to do this, in time, but many are not able to make the transition over that psychological gap between theory and practice. This problem has finally been resolved with the release of this Daniel Ferrera's course, The Keys To Successful Speculation.
Those of you who have studied Ferrera's other courses, know that his prior works have primarily focused upon uncovering the deeper and more complex, esoteric elements of Gann analysis, cycle theory, and the like. Yet Dan recognized that many students of this deeper analysis are blocked or confused when it came to developing successful trading strategies and applications from the more complex material. There is a huge gulf between analyzing the markets and trading the markets, a gulf that many researchers never successfully breach. This new trading course, what we consider to be a sort of Trading 101 Course, takes a radically different approach than anything he has produced before
The Keys To Successful Speculation presents a fully intact trading manual, which will clearly teach anyone, including those with absolutely no prior knowledge of the markets, Gann, or forecasting in general, to successfully trade in any market, from stocks, to futures, to options, in any time frame, from day trading to long term trading, beginning with very limited capital, as little as a few thousand dollars. This book is not esoteric, and is not focused on abstract analytical and theoretical principles, but is totally application orientated, specifically outlining a clear trading strategy which incorporates all of the necessary principles of money management, charting, risk management, swing trading, signal generation, the use of options and much more. We have never found another course that so clearly and easily provides all the needed instruction to take one from the confused status of an inexperienced trader or complete beginner, to the status of one who is able to make regular trades in the right way, producing consistent profits for their efforts. Taking this first step from confusion to a clear trading program and strategy is essential for anyone who desires to be a successful trader.
Besides laying out a trading plan that anyone can understand and learn to apply, Keys provides a strategic logic upon which more advanced analysts can overlay their deeper understanding and market research to produce even more successful return streams, and more powerful trading systems. Successful trading requires that one have a plan of strategy, whatever the level of trader, and this course provides that logic and strategic thinking that is required to develop that trading plan.
We feel that this course will provide the first and most important step to the long sought success that many aspiring traders have been working towards.
Overview of Keys Principles & Methodology
We asked Dan to give a brief overview of this trading methodology and some examples and he responded with the following:
1. System objectivity/discretional approach. The approach is very straight forward and easy to apply and understand. Subjectivity is eliminated as much as possible.
2. System%predictability/timeframe: The methods work on all time frames without changing any rules and works in a consistent manner.
3. Win/losses/drawdown/min capital req. Average capital would be $5,000 but someone could start trading it with options for less upfront capital. Drawdowns are kept well under control if you follow the entire method and the number of winners should out do the losses by an average of 6 to 1 with a risk to reward ratio that is always greater than 3 to 1.
4. System return/time. This depends on what time frame you use when you trade it. In the book, I illustrate a trading run on the S&P emini that resulted in a 200% return in 9-months using only one of the trading approaches presented in the material. I made every attempt to keep things simple.
5. System math/logic support. The logic is based on laws of motion and laws of attraction, but no complex math formulas are used nor needed to exploit these advantages. Only a new perspective is required.
6. Psychological and other consequences/amount of work to learn and make/stick to decision. The approach is pretty easy to learn. I cannot predict how long it will take anyone to overcome any psychological issues they may have from prior experiences, but I personally believe that if one really follows everything discussed in KEYS, that they will and should make money from trading in this way.
I hope this information is helpful,
Here are a few examples of Keys trades in Soybeans and in Bonds. I did
one on a daily and the other on an intra-day so that people can see that it
works on all time frames. The trades were generated using the first 3 swing
patterns. There a 7 entry methods in total, so this is about half. Anyway, the
entries used were Lost Motion, 2-lower tops or 2-higher lows and 4th time at
the same price.
SOYBEAN DAILY TRADING EXAMPLE
Authorized purchase of this course gives access to the Keys To Speculation Ferrera Trading Salon, which is dedicated to trading and applied principles, and contains over 600 posts of questions and answers between Ferrera and students of this course over a period of 4 years. Ferrera no longer monitors this forum, but every imaginable questions has been asked and answered here, with 100’s of examples of applications of these techniques. Every question you will ever ask has already been answered in this Private Online Forum.
Trade Station Indicators
Ferrera also has developed a few TradeStation indicators which are available for those who request them, since not as many people use TradeStation anymore. The indicators are in no way necessary to easily apply the techniques in this course.
It is a pleasure to write this recommendation for Dan Ferrera's Keys to Successful Speculation. Over the last ten years I developed a number of unique tools for trading markets, but never felt like I had the correct method for utilizing these tools. I never had risk and money management rules that I could rely on. Recently I was going to through my library looking for some guidelines and picked up Dan's Key's again. I was blown away by how perfect this book is for what I was looking for. What I found was not what I expected to find. I expected forecasting techniques, which I already have in abundance, but what I found is far more useful; I found how to make forecasting techniques very profitable. What I found is how to favorably bias the risk / reward equation as the primary rule of trading. What a gift!
With this any method of trading becomes profitable. One can use moving averages, Gann Theory, Cycle theory, Elliott Wave, Fibonacci, trend line methods, stochastics, it does not matter. The true objective is not to make a smarter trading system, its to make a smarter trader and Keys is the one book I have found that does that. It does not matter what trading system you use, Keys provides a "Statistical advantage" before you even begin to trade by applying both account management skills and then consciously biasing the risk:reward ratio of the game. I am convinced that this is the only way to make a living in the trading business.
Everyone always talks about the upside of trading believing that with unlimited gain potential and limited losses that it's eventually inevitable that given enough time and resources that you will surely hit it big. However in reality, success in this endeavour is very low because nobody truly understands how to apply this concept when they begin actual trading. Keys teaches this and if you really look at it from a consistent theme basis, you will see that all the entry triggers in the book are just techniques to begin applying Dan's real message of skewing risk : reward in your favor all the time. I am very grateful for Dan's work and wanted to write and tell you so.
SR – Fairfield, IA
I was drawn to Daniel Ferrera ‘Keys to Successful Speculation’ due to Money Management (MM), similar like what “a bee is drawn to a honey-pot”. I am intuitive on what next needs to be worked and mastered in my trading plan, and MM was on my mind for at least 2 months. However when I read the testimonials on Dan’s book, I was apprehensive in in my attitude to receiving the book and doubted whether I was making a sound investment. 90% of the Testimonials for Dan’s book for the “Keys” are missing the point, and do not understand what Dan has presented in his book, other than it ‘works’.
I found every page literally juicing with information with how Life works and operates in the NOW. From the invisible life of the atom to the physical side and affects that we see in our world today. It reminds me of Emerson’s essay on “Cause and Effect”. The same applies to the financial world too. What Dan presents is the Matrix of Life that is so subtle that if one has “ears to hear, and eyes to see”, you will pick up on that. Which leads me to say also that I can see that it ties in with what Gann is communicating too. Furthermore also what Gann communicates is “Safety First” in the Markets through MM and sound rules in your trading plan, which if you stick to, always makes you money! I now have my Trading Plan well-rounded with MM as a key part of my structure and foundation in building my wall to stay ahead of the masses. Keys gets you in the right mind-set, and furthermore having the right mind-set is 99% of the secret to trading. If you start out with making “MONEY” without having the right mind-set, you’re sunk before you’ve started. You might as well try playing the Lotto rather than Trading for a Profession. MM is like a backbone, similar to what a spine is to the human body.
I don’t know what it is about human nature, but it is human nature to look into a ”crystal ball” to predict the future, but that is not reality. One has to trade what is on the right of a screen and primarily on what they see NOW, and not some projected future, which may or may not happen. Dan puts your mind in the NOW and focuses on MM, trade plans, exits, and so forth in a clear and simple way that sticks. Best of all it takes out all of the EMOTION out of the equation, which trips us up all the time in regards to trading, and gets you to a level to where you are comfortable and live with. Dan presents literal “Keys” that will unlock your potential to making money out of the Markets, and am glad to have bought the book, as I has turned out to be one of my sound investments amongst many that I have made. Best of all it is a reference manual on how to trade the Financials that I will point to if my children should ever want to take up Trading as a Profession.
Thanks Dan for a brilliant piece of work and literature that you have shared for today and tomorrow, and to pass on to my kids. I am extremely grateful.
GH, Adelaide, AU
Boy, I must thank you and Dan for making this book available!! That has got to be among the greatest titles on Trading that I have ever seen. It is a Tome of incalculable value. I really mean that. It is clear to me that it will be tremendously useful in my trading -- to have the *Key* to Trading... it's all down hill from there, if you really apply the discipline.
It is one tremendous volume! -- everything about it... the print style, the book contents, the Gann bonuses at the end. I don't know how others were able to underestimate it, but I can tell I made the right decision *by far* (to purchase it)! It has got to be one of the most valuable books I own, perhaps the MOST valuable, and I own some *very* expensive and exclusive trading books and courses. Thanks so much for making things like this available!! So begins a great adventure :).
Thanks again, MB, Bowie, MD
I really like Keys, I use Wheels and Dan's annual reports as reference but I think the practicality of Keys is awesome! I think Keys is the best trading book I have purchased to date and I have bought some real BS... I definitely think it is the best course I've seen so far for trading.. I think the practicality of Keys is what differentiates it from other courses. Thanks, VK
Thanks to Sacred Science & Dan for keeping the light burning brightly for those of us still seeking a suitable methodology. After being financially & emotionally damaged for years this course has me unable to sleep. When I got to the top of the page 94 & Dan says 'this concludes the course' the blood drained from my face. I was thinking to myself "money management is the big message to come from that course, I'll keep it in mind."
Then I got to the red light green light section. Combined with the boxing the chart, it’s pure genius! Why did this not occur to me, after 15 years of struggle & anguish & occasionally giving up on myself. I have tried to combine time frames with various timing methods on the swing charts for years, the one thing that held me in check was the starting point & end point. The methodology is now clear. I know the struggle is over. This is all about money management & my trading plan. I now need to adapt to knowing that the future is assured (financially at least). I now feel drained because it was the fight & struggle that kept me going for so long. I will adapt.
Thanks so much to Dan, DS
From despair to elation! I have been trading for about 10 years. I have spent more on trading systems, books and charts then I have made in the market. I have seen a thousand different trading strategies and I have tried almost all of them with only greater losses trading to show for my investment. I have had such poor trading results that I became scared to actually put on a trade. I would just sit and stare at my computer screen, saying: "I should of bought here or I should have sold there." I had just about given up on finding something that would actually work and make me a successful trader.
I read a little bit of Dan’s other books at a friend’s house and thought they were really interesting. My friend said that he got an email about Dan’s new book, so I thought I would take one more chance, throughout my 10-years of trading, I have said this over and over again. I had my tax return check and decided to give Keys a try.
I read the book a few times as was suggested and realized there might actually be something to this approach and trading philosophy. Then the day came to putting on a real life trade, I froze up again, I couldn’t pull the trigger. I watched the charts for a couple more days and I looked at all the past setups and made an ultimatum. I would put on the next trade or I would quit watching the markets all together and just give up. The time came, to put on a trade. I hit the send button, I was short the S&P Emini, the trade didn’t do much at first but then it started to move in my favor. It worked perfectly!
The next trade was another Emini trade this time I went long, and this
time it wasn’t as hard to pull the trigger on this trade but I still had to
mentally force myself to do it. This trade also worked. I immediately called my
brokerage firm and had them send me for almost 70% of my profits. I can’t wait
for this check to arrive!!! I have never received a check from all my days of
trading unless it was to close out my account due to losses.
While writing this, I put on another trade. I went short the Emini again, I had an easier time pulling the trigger this time but things went wrong and I got stopped out for a small loss. I didn’t have those feelings of despair this time because my stop was mentally and emotionally tolerable. The trade also gave me a chance to re-enter, so I did. At this point, the trade has moved far enough in my favor that I can’t lose anything. I am so happy I finally found something that really works. I don’t know why Dan would even sell this material to the public. I feel liberated!!!!! Thanks So Very Much! T. Marks
I wanted to write a review about my experiences using Dan’s latest book
“The Key’s To Successful Speculation”. But before I do that, I wanted to write
about what brought me to buy this new course. I am 35 years old. I have been
trading on and off inconsistently since I was 25. I always felt to succeed in
the markets you had to have some complicated plan to make money from the
markets because you are trading against the smartest minds in the world. I have
spent so much money reading numerous trading books on technical analysis and
how to make money in the stock market that it is too many to write about. I
have bought so many different technical analysis software programs including
(Advanced Get, MetaStock, Nature’s Pulse, AIQ, Omega Research, etc…) and other
add on software to go with these programs to find a “Holy Grail” to trading
that I just about given up trading and just invest in mutual funds because I
never had a trading plan to consistently make money.
When I became aware of Dan’s new course, I was a little sceptical. I have spent so much money in the past; I couldn’t imagine another trading course that would make me become the trader I wanted to become. I was just about ready to leave for my golf trip to Palm Dessert with some friends and in came my tax return check from the IRS. After rereading the book’s contents, I gave it one last shot and bought Dan’s book to learn how to trade.
I started reading his book and boy was I surprised. Dan is a very direct writer. He gets right to the point and leaves little for second guessing. The way he wrote his book, I felt he was writing it directly to me. He pointed out numerous trading mistakes I made and why most traders fail when they trade. He explains how to trade and when to enter and exit. He thoroughly explains money management and why it is the most neglected area in trading. Dan writes that you should read this material numerous times to fully grasp the material in this course. Before reading this book, I didn’t have any risk/reward plan. I had no real understanding of where and when to enter and exit, nor how to manage a trade when I am in it.
Now I feel very confident in what I am doing. You don’t need the most complicated trading strategy like I thought you would need to be successful. I know when and where I should buy and sell. I mostly trade stocks, but this material works very well with futures and options. I am more focused and feel very much empowered in knowing that I am on the right track. I am not taking any foolhardy chances like I have in the past. I know that if I work with persistence and follow and trade the market as per the rules in Dan’s book, “The Key’s To Successful Speculation”, then I will succeed and reach my goals in becoming a successful trader.
If you are not sure and feel that this is just another trading book, then learn from my initial mistake and buy this book. You will learn more about trading than anything else you will find on trading the markets. If you are not having the trading success you want, give this course a try. You won’t be sorry!
Thanks Dan for writing a great book and for answering my questions in the forum. I also want to thank you for sending that email and for having a great forum allowing us traders to ask questions to help in our understanding of the material.
Wishing you much success,
· INTRODUCTION PAGES 1-2
· DEDICATION PAGE 3
· RISK DISCLOSER PAGES 3-4
· COMMODITY BASICS PAGES 4-5
· HOW MUCH DO YOU NEED TO START CORRECTLY PAGE 6
· THE PROFESSION & BUSINESS PAGE 6-7
· CHARTS PAGES 7-8
· THE KEYS TO SUCCESSFUL SPECULATION PAGES 9-22
· MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS SECTION 1 PAGES 22-28
· PERSPECTIVE PAGES 29-34
· MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS II GEOMETRY REVIEW PAGES 34-37
· INSTANTANEOUS BALANCE STABILITY PAGES 38-42
· GANN’S MECHANICAL SYSTEM PAGES 42-51
· SWING TRADING IMPROVEMENTS THEORY & PRINCIPLE PAGES 52-53
· UNDERSTANDING AND EXPLOITING LOST MOTION PAGES 53-56
· ENDPOINTS OF SWINGS HAVE MAGNETIC FORCE PAGES 56-59
· ZONES OF INFLUENCE DEFINE TEST & FAILURE PAGES 60-62
· SIMPLE PROFIT TARGETS & MARKET EXAMPLES PAGES 62-68
· TRADING PATTERN #2 PAGES 69-70
· HOW PRICE CAN CHANGE POLARITY PAGES 71-72
· THE FOURTH TIME AT THE SAME LEVEL PAGES 72-75
· HOW TO DETERMINE A USEFUL SWING SIZE PAGE 76
· HOW TO DETERMINE USEFUL STOPS PAGES 77-78
· TRADING IS A PROFESSION PAGES 78-79
· UNDERSTANDING THE OPTIONS OPPORTUNITY PAGES 79-85
· PROBABILITY OF A PRICE MOVE PAGES 85-87
· UNDERSTANDING OPTION SPREADS PAGES 87-90
· SUCCESSFUL TRADING PAGE 91
· WHAT IS LUCK PAGE 92
· CONCLUSION PAGES 93-94
· OPPORTUNIST SYSTEM PAGES 95-99
· SWING TRADING STOCKS BASED ON SQUARE ROOTS PAGES 100-104
· QUESTIONS & ANSWERS PAGES 104-139
· UNDERSTANDING TRENDS & TRENDLINE BREAKS PAGES 112-114
· TRENDS AGAIN, BAR GROUPING TECHNIQUE PAGES 114-119
· GANN’S RED LIGHT GREEN LIGHT TREND INDICATOR PAGES 119-130
· USING INSIDE BARS TO ENTER WITH THE TREND PAGES 132-138
· GANN’S NATURAL RESISTANCE LEVELS & CYCLE POINTS PAGES 139-163
STUDENT QUESTIONS&ANSWERS FROMONLINE SALON PAGES 164-245
Price & Ordering
The Keys to Successful Speculation
AN APPLIED TECHNICAL TRADING MANUAL
INTEGRATING THE ESSENTIALS OF RISK MANAGEMENT
WITH A GANN BASED SWING TRADING SYSTEM
By Daniel T. Ferrera
2004 black suede hardcover. 350 pages, with many charts & images
cat #500 Retail Price $1500.00
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The Institute of Cosmological Economics & Sacred Science Institute are economic research and educational companies. The information contained herein is for general education purposes and is not intended as specific advice or recommendations to any person or entity. Any reference to a transaction, trade, position, holding, security, market, or level is purely meant to educate readers about possible risks and opportunities in the marketplace and are not meant to imply that any person or entity should take any action whatsoever without first evaluating such action(s) in light of their own situation either on their own or through a professional advisor. The methods presented are not solicitations of any order to buy or sell. If a person or entity does not believe they are qualified to make such decisions, they should seek professional advice. The prices listed are for reference only and are in no way intended to represent an actual trade, entry price or exit price conducted by the Institute of Cosmological Economics, portfolios managed by any entity affiliated with the Institute of Cosmological Economics, or any principal or employee of the Institute of Cosmological Economics, or any of its affiliates. This information is not a substitute for professional advice of any nature, including tax, legal, and financial. While we believe the information contained herein to be accurate, all numbers should be verified by the reader through independent sources. It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented in these products will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. There is no assurance that the strategies and methods presented in this book will be successful for you. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Trading securities, options, futures, or any other security involves risk and can result in the immediate and substantial loss of the capital invested. The author, publisher, distributors and all affiliates assume no responsibility for your trading or investment results, and will not be liable for any loss, damage or liability directly or indirectly caused by the usage of this material. There is considerable risk of loss in Futures, Stock and Options trading. You should only use risk capital in all such endeavors. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. Every reader/recipient is responsible for his or her own investment decisions. The information contained in this report or in any update does not necessarily mean that the Institute of Cosmological Economics, or any portfolio managed by any affiliates of the Institute of Cosmological Economics, or that any employees of the Institute of Cosmological Economics, or its affiliates holds the positions or has conducted the actual trade. At various times the Institute of Cosmological Economics, portfolios managed by affiliates of the Institute of Cosmological Economics, or any other principal or employee of the Institute of Cosmological Economics may own, buy or sell the securities discussed for the purposes of investment or trading.
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